Applicability and potential clinical effects of 2013 cholesterol guidelines on major cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: The applicability to different race/ethnic groups and effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes of the 2013 American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines for cholesterol management remain to be determined. We estimated the proportion of Korean adults who would be affected by the 2013 cholesterol guidelines and to determine the related effects on cardiovascular events. METHODS: Using data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey of 2008 to 2012 (n = 18,573), we compared the estimated number of statin candidates under the 2013 ACC/AHA and the Third Adult Treatment Panel (ATP-III) guidelines and extrapolated the results to 19.0 million Koreans between the ages of 40 and 75 years. Using an external cohort (n = 63,329) from the 2003 National Health Examination with 7 years of prospective follow-up, we determined the potential effects of recent recommendations changes on atherosclerotic CVD events (composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke). RESULTS: Compared with the ATP-III guidelines, the ACC/AHA guidelines would increase the number of statin candidates from 3.5 million (18.6%) to 6.7 million (35.1%). The increase of statin candidates would be larger among older adults (60-75 years; from 29.8% to 74.9%) as compared with younger adults (40-59 years; from 15.6% to 19.8%) and among men (from 25.7% to 45.4%) compared with women (from 14.6% to 26.8%). In the external cohort, compared with adults who were recommended by neither of the 2 guidelines, those who were recommended by both and those who were recommended by ACC/AHA but not ATP-III guidelines had significantly higher risks of atherosclerotic CVD events (hazard ratios [HRs] 3.65 [95% CI, 3.33-4.02] and 3.98 [95% CI 3.64-4.35], respectively). However, adults who were recommended by ATP-III but not ACC/AHA guidelines did not have an increased risk (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.64-1.28). CONCLUSIONS: In the Korean population, the 2013 ACC/AHA cholesterol guidelines would substantially increase the number of adults who are potentially eligible for statin therapy and would recommend statin therapy for more adults at higher cardiovascular risk. However, the clinician-patient discussion of the potential benefits, possible harms, and other factors before the initiation of statin therapy must be considered.

Using age- and sex-specific risk thresholds to guide statin therapy: one size may not fit all.

BACKGROUND: New cholesterol guidelines emphasize 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to identify adults eligible for statin therapy as primary prevention. Whether these CVD risk thresholds should be individualized by age and sex has not been explored. OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the potential impact of incorporating age- and sex-specific CVD risk thresholds into current cholesterol guidelines. METHODS: Using data from the Framingham Offspring Study, this study assessed current treatment recommendations among age- and sex-specific groups in 3,685 participants free of CVD. Then, it evaluated how varying age- and sex-specific 10-year CVD risk thresholds for statin treatment affect the sensitivity and specificity for incident 10-year CVD events. RESULTS: Basing statin therapy recommendations on a 10-year fixed risk threshold of 7.5% results in lower statin consideration among women than men (63% vs. 33%; p<0.0001), yet most of the study participants who were 66 to 75 years of age were recommended for statin treatment (90.3%). The fixed 7.5% threshold had relatively low sensitivity for capturing 10-year events in younger women and men (40 to 55 years of age). Sensitivity of the recommendations was substantially improved when the treatment threshold was reduced to 5% in participants who were 40 to 55 years of age. Among older adults (66 to 75 years of age), specificity was poor, but when the treatment threshold was raised to 10% in women and 15% in men, specificity significantly improved, with minimal loss in sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS: Cholesterol treatment recommendations could be improved by using individualized age- and sex-specific CVD risk thresholds.

Hyperlipidemia in early adulthood increases long-term risk of coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Many young adults with moderate hyperlipidemia do not meet statin treatment criteria under the new American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology cholesterol guidelines because they focus on 10-year cardiovascular risk. We evaluated the association between years of exposure to hypercholesterolemia in early adulthood and future coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined Framingham Offspring Cohort data to identify adults without incident cardiovascular disease to 55 years of age (n=1478), and explored the association between duration of moderate hyperlipidemia (non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥ 160 mg/dL) in early adulthood and subsequent CHD. At median 15-year follow-up, CHD rates were significantly elevated among adults with prolonged hyperlipidemia exposure by 55 years of age: 4.4% for those with no exposure, 8.1% for those with 1 to 10 years of exposure, and 16.5% for those with 11 to 20 years of exposure (P<0.001); this association persisted after adjustment for other cardiac risk factors including non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol at 55 years of age (hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.85 per decade of hyperlipidemia). Overall, 85% of young adults with prolonged hyperlipidemia would not have been recommended for statin therapy at 40 years of age under current national guidelines. However, among those not considered statin therapy candidates at 55 years of age, there remained a significant association between cumulative exposure to hyperlipidemia in young adulthood and subsequent CHD risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.64). CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative exposure to hyperlipidemia in young adulthood increases the subsequent risk of CHD in a dose-dependent fashion. Adults with prolonged exposure to even moderate elevations in non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol have elevated risk for future CHD and may benefit from more aggressive primary prevention.

Accuracy and validation of an automated electronic algorithm to identify patients with atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke.

BACKGROUND: There is no universally accepted algorithm for identifying atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and stroke risk using electronic data for use in performance measures. METHODS: Patients with AF seen in clinic were identified based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision(ICD-9) codes. CHADS(2) and CHA(2)DS(s)-Vasc scores were derived from a broad, 10-year algorithm using IICD-9 codes dating back 10 years and a restrictive, 1-year algorithm that required a diagnosis within the past year. Accuracy of claims-based AF diagnoses and of each stroke risk classification algorithm were evaluated using chart reviews for 300 patients. These algorithms were applied to assess system-wide anticoagulation rates. RESULTS: Between 6/1/2011, and 5/31/2012, we identified 6,397 patients with AF. Chart reviews confirmed AF or atrial flutter in 95.7%. A 1-year algorithm using CHA(2)DS(2)-Vasc score ≥2 to identify patients at risk for stroke maximized positive predictive value (97.5% [negative predictive value 65.1%]). The PPV of the 10-year algorithm using CHADS(2) was 88.0%; 12% those identified as high-risk had CHADS(2) scores <2. Anticoagulation rates were identical using 1-year and 10-year algorithms for patients with CHADS(2) scores ≥2 (58.5% on anticoagulation) and CHA(2)DS(2)-Vasc scores ≥2 (56.0% on anticoagulation). CONCLUSIONS: Automated methods can be used to identify patients with prevalent AF indicated for anticoagulation but may have misclassification up to 12%, which limits the utility of relying on administrative data alone for quality assessment. Misclassification is minimized by requiring comorbidity diagnoses within the prior year and using a CHA(2)DS(2)-Vasc based algorithm. Despite differences in accuracy between algorithms, system-wide anticoagulation rates assessed were similar regardless of algorithm used.

Proportion of US adults potentially affected by the 2014 hypertension guideline.

IMPORTANCE: The new 2014 blood pressure (BP) guideline released by the panel members appointed to the Eighth Joint National Committee (JNC 8; 2014 BP guideline) proposed less restrictive BP targets for adults aged 60 years or older and for those with diabetes and chronic kidney disease. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the proportion of US adults potentially affected by recent changes in recommendations for management of hypertension. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, nationally representative survey. PARTICIPANTS: Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2005 and 2010 (n = 16,372), we evaluated hypertension control and treatment recommendations for US adults. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Proportion of adults estimated to meet guideline-based BP targets under the 2014 BP guideline and under the previous seventh Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC 7) guideline. RESULTS: The proportion of younger adults (18-59 years) with treatment-eligible hypertension under the JNC 7 guideline was 20.3% (95% CI, 19.1%-21.4%) and decreased to 19.2% (95% CI, 18.1%-20.4%) under the 2014 BP guideline. Larger declines were observed among older adults (≥60 years), decreasing from 68.9% (95% CI, 66.9%-70.8%) under JNC 7 to 61.2% (95% CI, 59.3%-63.0%) under the 2014 BP guideline. The proportion of adults with treatment-eligible hypertension who met BP goals increased slightly for younger adults, from 41.2% (95% CI, 38.1%-44.3%) under JNC 7 to 47.5% (95% CI, 44.4%-50.6%) under the 2014 BP guideline, and more substantially for older adults, from 40.0% (95% CI, 37.8%-42.3%) under JNC 7 to 65.8% (95% CI, 63.7%-67.9%) under the 2014 BP guideline. Overall, 1.6% (95% CI, 1.3%-1.9%) of US adults aged 18-59 years and 27.6% (95% CI, 25.9%-29.3%) of adults aged 60 years or older were receiving BP-lowering medication and meeting more stringent JNC 7 targets. These patients may be eligible for less stringent or no BP therapy with the 2014 BP guideline. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Compared with the JNC 7 guideline, the 2014 BP guideline from the panel members appointed to the JNC 8 was associated with a reduction in the proportion of US adults recommended for hypertension treatment and a substantial increase in the proportion of adults considered to have achieved goal BP, primarily in older adults.

The impact of a measurement and feedback intervention on blood pressure control in ambulatory cardiology practice.

BACKGROUND: Although hypertension is a modifiable cardiovascular risk factor, up to one-third of ambulatory patients have uncontrolled blood pressure (BP). We evaluated the impact of a targeted provider feedback intervention on rates of BP control. METHODS: Clinic BP readings were aggregated among approximately 3,000 hypertensive patients followed up in 42 outpatient cardiology clinic practices at a large quaternary care academic medical center. Physician practices received quarterly reports on BP control rates. Provider-specific reports were benchmarked vs overall peer performance and distributed quarterly between September 2011 and September 2012. Rates of BP control were evaluated before and after the intervention. Medical record reviews were performed for a subset of patients with uncontrolled BP before (n = 300) and after (n = 300) the intervention to evaluate provider responses and interventions. RESULTS: At baseline, 27.9% of clinic patients had uncontrolled BP. After one 1 of reports, the rate of uncontrolled BP remained unchanged (27.7%, P = .86). Analysis of provider performance revealed a subset of providers who consistently outperform their peers. In the sample of patients selected for medical record reviews, at baseline (n = 300) and follow-up (n = 300), cardiologists discussed BP in 80% of clinic notes for patients with uncontrolled BP. Cardiologists more frequently documented repeat measurements after the intervention (28.0% vs 35.7%, P = .04). No other changes were found in documentation of provider responses to BP. CONCLUSIONS: Clinician-specific audit and feedback reports as a stand-alone intervention did not affect overall BP control rates in cardiology clinics. Future BP control interventions should consider real-time patient-specific reminders, provider incentive programs, and patient engagement interventions.

Application of new cholesterol guidelines to a population-based sample.

BACKGROUND: The 2013 guidelines of the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC-AHA) for the treatment of cholesterol expand the indications for statin therapy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys of 2005 to 2010, we estimated the number, and summarized the risk-factor profile, of persons for whom statin therapy would be recommended (i.e., eligible persons) under the new ACC-AHA guidelines, as compared with the guidelines of the Third Adult Treatment Panel (ATP III) of the National Cholesterol Education Program, and extrapolated the results to a population of 115.4 million U.S. adults between the ages of 40 and 75 years. RESULTS: As compared with the ATP-III guidelines, the new guidelines would increase the number of U.S. adults receiving or eligible for statin therapy from 43.2 million (37.5%) to 56.0 million (48.6%). Most of this increase in numbers (10.4 million of 12.8 million) would occur among adults without cardiovascular disease. Among adults between the ages of 60 and 75 years without cardiovascular disease who are not receiving statin therapy, the percentage who would be eligible for such therapy would increase from 30.4% to 87.4% among men and from 21.2% to 53.6% among women. This effect would be driven largely by an increased number of adults who would be classified solely on the basis of their 10-year risk of a cardiovascular event. Those who would be newly eligible for statin therapy include more men than women and persons with a higher blood pressure but a markedly lower level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. As compared with the ATP-III guidelines, the new guidelines would recommend statin therapy for more adults who would be expected to have future cardiovascular events (higher sensitivity) but would also include many adults who would not have future events (lower specificity). CONCLUSIONS: The new ACC-AHA guidelines for the management of cholesterol would increase the number of adults who would be eligible for statin therapy by 12.8 million, with the increase seen mostly among older adults without cardiovascular disease. (Funded by the Duke Clinical Research Institute and others.).

The feasibility and accuracy of evaluating lipid management performance metrics using an electronic health record.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, electronic health records (EHRs) have emerged as a potential tool to assess quality of care; however, the feasibility and accuracy of EHRs to assess adherence to lipid management performance measures have not been evaluated. METHODS: We created a retrospective cohort of 3779 patients with coronary artery disease who were followed up in a cardiology clinic at an academic medical center using an EHR database. Of these 3779 patients, 300 randomly-selected charts were reviewed to identify reasons for failure to adhere to lipid management performance measures. RESULTS: Based on the EHR, a low-density lipoprotein cholesterol measurement was obtained in 73% of patients within the past 3 years; of which, 34% had low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥100 mg/dL and statin therapy had been prescribed in 88%. Manual chart review revealed that many of these apparent failures were actually false positives, due to inaccurate capture of indications and contraindications to lipid measurement and statin prescription, patient/provider treatment preferences, and external data sources. CONCLUSIONS: While it is possible to monitor adherence to lipid management performance measures using an EHR, the accuracy of this assessment is currently limited and may underestimate provider quality of care.

Association of vaccine-related attitudes and beliefs between parents and health care providers.

OBJECTIVES: Health care providers influence parental vaccination decisions. Over 90% of parents report receiving vaccine information from their child's health care provider. The majority of parents of vaccinated children and children exempt from school immunization requirements report their child's primary provider is a good source for vaccine information. The role of health care providers in influencing parents who refuse vaccines has not been fully explored. The objective of the study was to determine the association between vaccine-related attitudes and beliefs of health care providers and parents. METHODS: We surveyed parents and primary care providers of vaccinated and unvaccinated school age children in four states in 2002-2003 and 2005. We measured key immunization beliefs including perceived risks and benefits of vaccination. Odds ratios for associations between parental and provider responses were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Surveys were completed by 1367 parents (56.1% response rate) and 551 providers (84.3% response rate). Parents with high confidence in vaccine safety were more likely to have providers with similar beliefs, however viewpoints regarding disease susceptibility and severity and vaccine efficacy were not associated. Parents whose providers believed that children get more immunizations than are good for them had 4.6 higher odds of holding that same belief compared to parents whose providers did not have that belief. CONCLUSIONS: The beliefs of children's health care providers and parents, including those regarding vaccine safety, are similar. Provider beliefs may contribute to parental decisions to accept, delay or forgo vaccinations. Parents may selectively choose providers who have similar beliefs to their own.

Variability in performance measures for assessment of hypertension control.

BACKGROUND: Definitions of multiple performance measures exist for the assessment of blood pressure control; however, limited data on how these technical variations may affect actual measured performance are available. METHODS: We evaluated patients with hypertension followed routinely by cardiologists at Duke University Health System from 2009 to 2010. Provider hypertension control was compared based on reading at the last clinic visit vs the average blood pressure across all visits. The impact of home blood pressure measurements and patient exclusions endorsed by the American Heart Association, the American College of Cardiology, and the Physician Consortium for Performance Improvement were evaluated using medical record reviews. RESULTS: Among 5,552 hypertensive patients, the rate of blood pressure control based on last clinic visit was 69.1%; however, significant clinic-to-clinic variability was seen in serial clinic blood pressure measurements in individual patients (average 18 mm Hg). As a result, provider performance ratings varied considerably depending on whether a single reading or average blood pressure reading was used. The inclusion of home blood pressure measurements resulted in modestly higher rates of blood pressure control performance (+6% overall). Similarly, excluding patients who met guideline-recommended exclusion criteria increased blood pressure control rates only slightly (+3% overall). In contrast, excluding patients who were on 2 or more antihypertensive medications would have raised blood pressure control rates to 96% overall. CONCLUSION: Depending on definitions used, overall and provider-specific blood pressure control rates can vary considerably. Technical aspects of blood pressure performance measures may affect perceived quality gaps and comparative provider ratings.

Are Recent Medical Graduates More Skeptical of Vaccines?

Rates of delay and refusal of recommended childhood vaccines are increasing in many U.S. communities. Children's health care providers have a strong influence on parents' knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs about vaccines. Provider attitudes towards immunizations vary and affect their immunization advocacy. One factor that may contribute to this variability is their familiarity with vaccine-preventable diseases and their sequelae. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of health care provider year of graduation with vaccines and vaccine-preventable disease beliefs. We conducted a cross sectional survey in 2005 of primary care providers identified by parents of children whose children were fully vaccinated or exempt from one or more school immunization requirements. We examined the association of provider graduation cohort (5 years) with beliefs on immunization, disease susceptibility, disease severity, vaccine safety, and vaccine efficacy. Surveys were completed by 551 providers (84.3% response rate). More recent health care provider graduates had 15% decreased odds of believing vaccines are efficacious compared to graduates from a previous 5 year period; had lower odds of believing that many commonly used childhood vaccines were safe; and 3.7% of recent graduates believed that immunizations do more harm than good. Recent health care provider graduates have a perception of the risk-benefit balance of immunization, which differs from that of their older counterparts. This change has the potential to be reflected in their immunization advocacy and affect parental attitudes.

Pediatric-specific antimicrobial susceptibility data and empiric antibiotic selection.

OBJECTIVE: Duke University Health System (DUHS) generates annual antibiograms combining adult and pediatric data. We hypothesized significant susceptibility differences exist for pediatric isolates and that distributing these results would alter antibiotic choices. METHODS: Susceptibility rates for Escherichia coli isolates from patients aged ≤12 years between July 2009 and September 2010 were compared with the 2009 DUHS antibiogram. Pediatric attending and resident physicians answered case-based vignettes about children aged 3 months and 12 years with urinary tract infections. Each vignette contained 3 identical scenarios with no antibiogram, the 2009 DUHS antibiogram, and a pediatric-specific antibiogram provided. Effective antibiotics exhibited >80% in vitro susceptibility. Frequency of antibiotic selection was analyzed by using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy-five pediatric isolates were identified. Pediatric isolates were more resistant to ampicillin and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) and less resistant to amoxicillin-clavulanate and ciprofloxacin (P < .0005 for all). Seventy-five resident and attending physicians completed surveys. In infant vignettes, physicians selected amoxicillin-clavulanate (P < .05) and nitrofurantoin (P < .01) more often and TMP-SMX (P < .01) less often with pediatric-specific data. Effective antibiotic choices increased from 68.6% to 82.2% (P = .06) to 92.5% (P < .01) across scenarios. In adolescent vignettes, providers reduced TMP-SMX use from 66.2% to 42.6% to 19.0% (P < .01 for both). Effective antibiotic choices increased from 32.4% to 57.4% to 79.4% (P < .01 and P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric E. coli isolates differ significantly in antimicrobial susceptibility at our institution, particularly to frequently administered oral antibiotics. Knowledge of pediatric-specific data altered empirical antibiotic choices in case vignettes. Care of pediatric patients could be improved with use of a pediatric-specific antibiogram.

Hypertension control among patients followed by cardiologists.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension control is an important and modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The overall rate of hypertension control among patients followed in cardiology clinics, as well as clinician variability in control rates, is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with hypertension (n=5979) routinely followed in a cardiology clinic (n=47 physicians). Overall, 30.3% of patients with hypertension had suboptimal control (blood pressure [BP] ≥ 140/90 mm Hg) at the end of a 13-month follow-up period. Patient-level factors associated with control were younger age, male sex, white ethnicity, having a primary care provider at Duke, private insurance, Medicare/Medicaid, and comorbid diagnoses of heart failure or coronary artery disease. Unadjusted rates of suboptimal BP control among clinicians' clinic patient panels ranged from 16% to 44%. Even after adjusting for patient factors, patients' odds of BP control varied 6-fold, depending on their treating clinician. Using a patient's average BP rather than their most recent BP did not result in significant changes in provider performance. In chart reviews (n=300), clinicians failed to document a plan to address hypertension in 38% of patients with elevated BP in the clinic. CONCLUSIONS: Up to one-third of patients followed routinely by cardiologists in clinic have suboptimally controlled BP, with wide variability in performance across individual clinicians. This variability, alongside evidence that elevated BP is often not acted on during clinic visits, demonstrates a potential opportunity for quality improvement.

Congenital rubella syndrome and autism spectrum disorder prevented by rubella vaccination--United States, 2001-2010.

BACKGROUND: Congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) is associated with several negative outcomes, including autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). The objective of this study was to estimate the numbers of CRS and ASD cases prevented by rubella vaccination in the United States from 2001 through 2010. METHODS: Prevention estimates were calculated through simple mathematical modeling, with values of model parameters determined from published literature. Model parameters included pre-vaccine era CRS incidence, vaccine era CRS incidence, the number of live births per year, and the percentage of CRS cases presenting with an ASD. RESULTS: Based on our estimates, 16,600 CRS cases (range: 8300-62,250) were prevented by rubella vaccination from 2001 through 2010 in the United States. An estimated 1228 ASD cases were prevented by rubella vaccination in the United States during this time period. Simulating a slight expansion in ASD diagnostic criteria in recent decades, we estimate that a minimum of 830 ASD cases and a maximum of 6225 ASD cases were prevented. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that rubella vaccination prevented substantial numbers of CRS and ASD cases in the United States from 2001 through 2010. These findings provide additional incentive to maintain high measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage.